Five ways to prepare for the seismic impact of GLP-1s on the business of food

This post was originally published on Food Industry Executive.

For those living on the West Coast of North America, the reality of “the Big One” is something everyone grows up knowing about: a massive seismic event that experts say will happen someday, literally reshaping the ground beneath their feet in unpredictable ways. If, like me, you’re from the southern half of California, it’s the San Andreas fault you’re warned about. If you’re from the Central Coast of California, it’s the Hayward fault beneath Oakland. In the Pacific Northwest, it’s the Cascadia subduction zone that lurks offshore.

For everyone involved in the growing, raising, manufacturing, or selling of food, our version of “the Big One” is GLP-1 drugs.

The good news is that, unlike the tectonically driven Big One, the impending impact of GLP-1s on the food sector can be predicted, mitigated, and may even offer an opportunity for growth.

The class of drugs we call GLP-1s mimic a hormone called glucagon-like peptide-1 (GLP-1) which tells our brains we are satisfied with the amount of food we’ve eaten and slows digestion. They were developed to help lower the blood sugar in people with diabetes, but one of their side-effects is substantial weight loss. Secondary effects include many of the benefits of losing weight, like improved blood pressure and cardiovascular health, but they may also decrease inflammation in the body and could reduce risk of Alzheimer’s and dementia. 

There are also studies underway to measure the efficacy of GLP-1 drugs as treatments for addiction. Even those without addiction issues report a reduced desire for alcoholic beverages after starting GLP-1 treatment. Since the impacts and benefits of GLP-1s mostly fade after discontinued use, long-term use may be necessary, leading to life-long changes to their fundamental approach to consuming food and beverages.

There is no aisle in the grocery store, no producer of food, and no restaurant that will avoid the impact of America’s growing adoption of GLP-1s.

As of May of 2024, 12% of Americans reported having used GLP-1 drugs, with 6% saying they’re currently using them. The two biggest barriers to their adoption, and the main driver of people no longer using them, are availability and expense. Half of those who’ve stopped taking them say they were difficult to afford, as many insurance carriers, including Medicare, either do not cover them for weight management or have pulled back on previous coverage. 

Until recently, pharmaceutical companies struggled to keep up with the demand for GLP-1 treatments. In response, the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) declared the drugs to be in shortage, which allowed pharmacies to manufacture and sell compounded versions at considerably lower costs than the patented name-brand versions. The patent holders lobbied the FDA to end the shortage declaration, which became official on February 21, 2025. Consequently, suppliers like Hims & Hers have announced they will stop selling compounded GLP-1s by the end of the quarter.

It seems likely the availability and affordability of GLP-1s will remain in flux for the near future, but lower cost and more readily available versions are coming. The first patents for semaglutide, the generic form of Ozempic, expire in 2026, and pill forms of most GLP-1s are in active development and testing. Pills are cheaper to produce, easier to transport than injectables requiring refrigeration and they will lower the barrier to taking them since many people are squeamish about self-injection. In addition, more affordable pill forms of the drugs may encourage insurers to start or resume coverage. Considering the number of Americans who stand to benefit from GLP-1 treatments, it seems inevitable that their usage will skyrocket in the next 18-24 months and continue to grow for the foreseeable future.

A recent Impact Analytics report suggests that calorie consumption in the United States will drop by 10 trillion kcal a year by 2030 due to GLP-1 drugs. And people who use these drugs aren’t just eating less, they report being less interested in eating processed foods. They want to eat fewer packaged snacks, less fast food, fewer soft drinks and alcoholic beverages, and instead are interested in more fresh or freshly prepared dishes, just in smaller portions.

Here are five key areas we at Ingredient believe food brands and their marketers should focus on as the impacts of GLP-1s become more pronounced:

• Thoughtful consumption
  People who are using GLP-1s are becoming more thoughtful and focused about food choices. Food brands will need to focus on using higher-quality ingredients with a more interesting or sustainable provenance. Consumers will look for new or remixed flavors more than ever before and, as mentioned above, will gravitate toward foods perceived as being fresher or more freshly prepared.

• Dietary quality
  GLP-1 users gravitate to quality over quantity, looking for foods that pack a bigger nutritional punch. They want options higher in protein and fiber along with more vitamins and minerals to meet their needs in fewer meals. Also, simplified ingredient decks will be more appealing over those that suggest a higher degree of processing.

• Room for supplements
  Those taking GLP-1 drugs will be on the lookout for supplements that provide them the necessary nutrients they may not be getting in the lower quantities of food they’re eating — and not just vitamins and minerals, but also specific prebiotics and probiotics. We’re already seeing packaged supplements being marketed specifically or implicitly toward GLP-1 users.

• Portion sizes
  GLP-1 users face a great deal of social pressure to maintain the same meal cadence as their friends and families not using the drugs. They might get invited to happy hour by friends or expected to participate in family dinners, though they may have little or no interest in eating more. They want to participate for the social aspects more than they do for the eating opportunities. To accommodate, restaurants will need to cater to customers with smaller appetites, either through “small plates” offerings (think dim sum, tapas, etc.) or the option to order half portions.

• Tailoring the story
  With all the things GLP-1 users are thinking about as they modify a lifetime’s worth of eating habits, marketers need to make sure to use the language they’re looking for. Explicitly calling out protein and fiber content, as well as other nutrient boosts, and emphasizing the fresher, less-processed qualities of products will appeal to GLP-1 users as well as the rest of consumers.

GLP-1s will permanently reshape the food consumption landscape in the United States in the coming years, but that process need not be as destructive as an earthquake. Those who are keeping an eye on how Americans’ fundamental relationship with food evolves can start effectively preparing for those changes today.